Increasing volatility of credit
Derivatives reflect the market’s sentiment and expectation quickly in their prices. Improved understanding and transparency could foster the acceptance of real estate as an asset class. Further, derivative markets should provide accurate signals for an optimal allocation of capital and risk.
Higher attractiveness and better risk management possibilities due to property derivatives could drive property prices generally upward. In other words, the risk premium and accordingly the cost of capital shrinks, since risk can better be measured and managed. However, this will only occur when there is enough liquidity and risk management opportunities. The investment bank Merrill Lynch estimates that this scenario can begin to happen if derivative volumes traded reach at least the transaction value of direct property. The bank estimates the critical size in the UK to be GB £50 billion turnover per year for the commercial sector. With the rapid growth of the UK property derivatives market, such a feedback effect could soon be seen to start.
Another feedback effect concerns activity. Experts say that the introduction of a derivatives market potentially reduces trading volume in the spot market, since the transfer of risk and return through derivatives make physical transaction at least partly obsolete. However, evidence is mixed. Other studies show that the existence of derivatives have actually improved activity in the related spot market.
However, there is some concern that a successful derivatives market will lead to fewer transactions in the underlying property market, reducing the base market’s liquidity and increasing credit volatility. This may have a significant impact on the underlying indices used to measure property returns, particularly the capital growth indices, which rely on valuations based on transactional evidence. Derivative advocates argue that there will always be demand for physical property from investors who believe they can beat the market through picking individual properties and actively managing them.
Payday loans to build exposures to different markets
Throughout the 1990s, several other initiatives were launched to get derivatives started. Iain Reid, a property consultant, realized that property funds could benefit hugely from the ability not just to build synthetic exposures to different segments of the market but also to hedge existing long positions by creating off-setting short positions. Reid moved to Barclays and found that its bankers were similarly enthusiastic about his plans to develop a product that could hedge property exposures. The UK real estate market had just been through a crash, and Barclays had property exposure as a result of bad loans made to property developers. To them, the idea that they could hedge that exposure was a revelation and they were very keen to launch something.
Together with Aberdeen Property Investors, Barclays Capital structured a tradable bond that pays out IPD index returns. They called these bonds Property Index Certificates (PICs). PICs link their coupon payments to the IPD All Property Income Return Index and the capital redemption value to the IPD All Property Capital Growth Index. Investors who wanted to gain exposure to the property market paid upfront to buy the bond and received income based on property valuations in the form of quarterly coupon and redemption payments. By issuing PICs, Barclays basically exchanged its long property exposure for a fixed income. The PICs were seen as bond instruments that pay a return based on an IPD index rather than pure derivatives.
The instruments enable investors to bet on the market, but not against it. Since its release, the certificate has mainly created interest from high-net-worth, private bank and institutional investors. In addition, Barclays launched exchange-traded Property Index Forwards (PIFs). These forward contracts on the IPD Capital Growth or Total Return Index included some standardized elements, to make the products tradable. However, in contrast to exchange-traded future contracts, not the market itself but the bank took the role of the market maker. Since the bank never really succeeded in developing a liquid secondary market, the concept was still based on matching buyers and sellers. Barclays continuously quoted prices for the contracts.
Exchange of cash flows between loans
A PTRS is a simple exchange of cash flows between two counterparties based on a notional amount. On one side, the buyer, taking a long position on commercial property, pays a fixed percentage interest rate or LIBOR plus a spread. In return, he or she receives a cashflow based on the annual total return of the property index. The seller, taking the equivalent short position, pays and receives cashflows that are exactly opposite.
The interest rate used by the market is typically the three-month LIBOR. The spread that is added reflects expectations of the future performance of the index, and what buyers and sellers are prepared to accept to take the position (see the property spread). In January 2008, many banks switched from the LIBOR-based to a fixed interest rate convention.
In the event that the annual total return is negative, i.e. if the capital value drops sufficiently to wipe out income returns, the total return buyer pays that negative return to the seller, in addition to the quarterly interest payments. The property index commonly used is an annual index, which is based on the actual performance of a large number of institutional portfolios and comprises an income or rental and a capital growth element.
In addition to swaps, contracts-for-difference (CFDs) are used as trading instruments. For deals on residential indices, such as the Halifax House Price Index, CFDs are already common. A CFD represents an index that is artificially set at 100 when the deal is done. Investors and hedgers then state the price at which they are willing to buy or sell the index at maturity. If two counterparties agree on a three-year deal at 112 and the index rises to 116, then the buyer receives 116 ? 112 = 4 times the contract size from the seller. The transactions are cash free until maturity, when profits and losses are settled. Many market participants find CFDs more intuitive than swaps.
Cash-settled payday loan contracts are available
After the launch of futures and options on regional home prices, CME announced a partnership with the commercial real estate index provider Global Real Analytics (GRA) on 6 September 2006. They listed future and option contracts based on the S&P/GRA Commercial Real Estate Indices (CREX) on 29 October 2007.
The S&P/GRA CREX indices capture underlying real estate dynamics by tracking transaction-based price changes in diverse property sectors and geographic regions. GRA has a 20-year history of capturing data and sees the new indices as a natural extension, suited for the use of publicly traded futures contracts.
Ten quarterly cash-settled contracts are available: a national composite index, five regional indices (Desert Mountain West, Mid-Atlantic South, Northeast, Midwest and Pacific West) and four national property type indices (retail, office, apartment and warehouse properties).
CME expects the users of the new property contracts to be different from those trading in housing derivatives. If someone hedges against house-price declines in an area, he or she develops or buys a house there. The commercial contracts, on the other hand, are designed for larger investors who hold commercial properties in their portfolios, such as pension funds and REITs.
To hedge real estate or home price declines, individuals can purchase put options based on a particular index. If prices fall, investors will naturally see the value of their real estate holdings decline, but they offset the losses with gains in the put options. The CME hopes that there will be enough speculators in the market to take the other side of the transactions.
