Increasing volatility of credit
Derivatives reflect the market’s sentiment and expectation quickly in their prices. Improved understanding and transparency could foster the acceptance of real estate as an asset class. Further, derivative markets should provide accurate signals for an optimal allocation of capital and risk.
Higher attractiveness and better risk management possibilities due to property derivatives could drive property prices generally upward. In other words, the risk premium and accordingly the cost of capital shrinks, since risk can better be measured and managed. However, this will only occur when there is enough liquidity and risk management opportunities. The investment bank Merrill Lynch estimates that this scenario can begin to happen if derivative volumes traded reach at least the transaction value of direct property. The bank estimates the critical size in the UK to be GB £50 billion turnover per year for the commercial sector. With the rapid growth of the UK property derivatives market, such a feedback effect could soon be seen to start.
Another feedback effect concerns activity. Experts say that the introduction of a derivatives market potentially reduces trading volume in the spot market, since the transfer of risk and return through derivatives make physical transaction at least partly obsolete. However, evidence is mixed. Other studies show that the existence of derivatives have actually improved activity in the related spot market.
However, there is some concern that a successful derivatives market will lead to fewer transactions in the underlying property market, reducing the base market’s liquidity and increasing credit volatility. This may have a significant impact on the underlying indices used to measure property returns, particularly the capital growth indices, which rely on valuations based on transactional evidence. Derivative advocates argue that there will always be demand for physical property from investors who believe they can beat the market through picking individual properties and actively managing them.
The Credit Property Total Return Swap
By December 2007, property derivatives deals have been made public in Australia, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan, Switzerland, the UK and the US. Deals were referenced to both commercial and residential properties. Derivatives that reflect commercial real estate are typically tied to appraisal-based indices while derivatives that reflect owner-occupied residential housing usually use transaction-based indices as the underlying instrument (see property indices).
Most contracts are still executed as matched bargain trades between a buyer and a seller, with pricing determined through negotiations between them. As the market becomes more liquid, standardized contracts will become available directly from intermediaries. They will price the contracts and assume the risk of finding a suitable counterparty.
Several derivative structures have been developed and traded. So far, the bulk of trades has been structured as over-the-counter (OTC) swap contracts. In addition, a few derivatives are listed and traded on public exchanges. Most market participants are aiming to create derivatives that replicate the familiar characteristics of direct property investment, i.e. quarterly rental income and annual capital growth. As the market expands, the variety of structures increases. Derivative markets have a particular order of development and it is not unusual for options to develop after futures and swaps, because the option writers require these instruments to be liquid in order to hedge their positions.
The Property Total Return Swap (PTRS) is the most popular format and, in principle, swaps a fixed or floating interest payment for an amount calculated with reference to total returns on the property index, which consists of both rental income and capital gains (see swap transactions). The swap structure is quite simple and the variations usually only involve the choice of the index (country, sector and rental, and/or capital growth index), the tenor and the payment conventions.
Derivatives to manage house credit and price risk
On the side of residential owner-occupied housing, Hinkelmann and Swidler (2006) are sceptic as to whether the market can take off. Mentally, homeowners tend to treat their home just as a consumption good rather than as an investment that involves price risk. Moreover, they would always be subject to a huge tracking error risk when hedging their homes with derivatives based on house price indices. This limits the effectiveness of hedging, and individuals may not use derivatives to manage house price risk. Ultimately, a lack of hedgers in the marketplace may lead to failure of residential housing derivatives such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) housing futures contracts. It remains to be seen whether the involved challenges and hurdles can be successfully addressed.
History shows that the buildup period of a new market is very fragile. Property derivatives were launched in the early 1990s and actually failed. The debut on the London Futures and Options Exchange (FOX) crashed in a combination of bad timing and scandal over false trades designed to create the impression of higher activity (see experience in property derivatives).
Today, liquidity in the property derivatives market has a good chance of being increased. In 1981, the first interest rate swap was done. Although people were sceptic at the time, it is now a trillion dollar market. The property market could experience a similar sort of growth in derivative instruments.
Market participants report loan enquiries
The first French property swap was traded by Merrill Lynch and AXA Real Estate Investment Managers in December 2006. The undisclosed notional amount was linked to the IPD Total Return French Offices Annual Index. By mid 2007, the French market has developed a permanent two-way pricing, i.e. bid and offer prices are constantly quoted. By the end of the fourth quarter of 2007, GB£ 787 million have been transacted in 63 trades. Most trades have been done on the office component of the French IPD index.
Moreover, market participants report enquiries on derivatives relating to the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) residential house price index.
The first option on an IPD index outside the UK was traded in January 2007, referenced to the German IPD/DIX Index. Goldman Sachs acted as intermediary for this trade, which was one of the first property derivative transactions in Germany. Subsequently, BNP Paribas offered a capital protected note on a basket consisting of IPD UK All Properties, IPD France Offices and IPD Germany All Properties. IPD publishes official transaction data starting with the second quarter of 2007.
The market picked up quickly, with 44 trades on a total notional value of GB£ 283 million from the second to the fourth quarter of 2007. In May 2007, Deutsche Bank Research expects the German market to reach € 25 billion by 2010. HypoVereinsbank states that a volume of € 150 billion is possible in the long run for Germany and € 300 billion for the European Union.
The numbers represent about 1% of the respective physical property market.
