Minimization of potential debt problems
Key to the success of a property derivatives market is the existence of a transparent and reliable index that can be used as an underlying value. Creating such an index for properties is by no means an easy task. No two buildings are identical; i.e. properties are heterogeneous constituents of an index. Consequently, recording and averaging only prices or valuations lead to a poor-quality index. All characteristics of a property that determine its value also need to be considered, so that prices can be adjusted for heterogeneity and finally be aggregated. Most existing indices were initially constructed as descriptive measures, typically targeted as a benchmark instrument. Thus, it is not clear that these indices are suitable as underlying instruments for derivatives, i.e. as operative measures. To achieve a high accuracy and to earn wide trustworthiness, the following basic criteria should be fulfilled:
Representativeness. The index must truly reflect risk and performance of the respective real estate market and idiosyncratic risk should be reduced to an acceptable level by including a large enough number of objects. Just as for the stock market, where an index with a limited number of titles represents the overall market well, a large enough sample represents the property market as a whole.
Transparency. The calculation debt problems method of the index has to be publicly available.
Track record. A long track record helps people to understand the index and to judge its representativeness and behavior in past economic circumstances.
Objectivity and minimization of potential fraud. The input data must be free of subjective preferences and valuation practices. A large number of independent data providers further reduces the risk of manipulation, as the data of each provider gets a smaller weight in the overall index.
The credit and tax bindweed on the growth
In 2004, the authorities loosened the legal and tax bindweed on the growth of a wider derivatives market. One of the earliest derivatives swap was arranged between Deutsche Bank and Eurohypo in 2005, and brought together a buyer and a seller of UK property risk. The seller exchanged a total property return (based on the IPD Index) for a LIBOR-based return paid by the buyer based on a notional principle. Prudential, the UK life assurer, and British Land also agreed on a commercial property swap at about the same time.
The formal launch of the Property Derivatives Interest Group (PDIG) on 16 September 2005 has set the crucial signal for the property market in the UK, which may serve as a role model for property derivatives trading elsewhere. However, the UK is somewhat fortunate because the available indices that are run by IPD are mature and widely accepted as accurate. That is not (yet) the case in most other countries.
In 2006, the market could build on the growth of the previous year and attracted further investment banks. Several banks started to quote option prices on IPD’s main index. Further, it was hoped that the arrival of sectoral transactions would deliver a further boost to the market. However, after a few trades on sector and even subsector indices in 2006, there were no more such deals in the first half of 2007. In essence, it remained a simple swap and forward market on the All Property Index with a few option trades, before trading volume soared in the wake of the US subprime mortgage crisis. The uncertainty introduced by the crisis attracted a number of new participants in the property derivatives market.
Payday loans to build exposures to different markets
Throughout the 1990s, several other initiatives were launched to get derivatives started. Iain Reid, a property consultant, realized that property funds could benefit hugely from the ability not just to build synthetic exposures to different segments of the market but also to hedge existing long positions by creating off-setting short positions. Reid moved to Barclays and found that its bankers were similarly enthusiastic about his plans to develop a product that could hedge property exposures. The UK real estate market had just been through a crash, and Barclays had property exposure as a result of bad loans made to property developers. To them, the idea that they could hedge that exposure was a revelation and they were very keen to launch something.
Together with Aberdeen Property Investors, Barclays Capital structured a tradable bond that pays out IPD index returns. They called these bonds Property Index Certificates (PICs). PICs link their coupon payments to the IPD All Property Income Return Index and the capital redemption value to the IPD All Property Capital Growth Index. Investors who wanted to gain exposure to the property market paid upfront to buy the bond and received income based on property valuations in the form of quarterly coupon and redemption payments. By issuing PICs, Barclays basically exchanged its long property exposure for a fixed income. The PICs were seen as bond instruments that pay a return based on an IPD index rather than pure derivatives.
The instruments enable investors to bet on the market, but not against it. Since its release, the certificate has mainly created interest from high-net-worth, private bank and institutional investors. In addition, Barclays launched exchange-traded Property Index Forwards (PIFs). These forward contracts on the IPD Capital Growth or Total Return Index included some standardized elements, to make the products tradable. However, in contrast to exchange-traded future contracts, not the market itself but the bank took the role of the market maker. Since the bank never really succeeded in developing a liquid secondary market, the concept was still based on matching buyers and sellers. Barclays continuously quoted prices for the contracts.
Cash-settled payday loan contracts are available
After the launch of futures and options on regional home prices, CME announced a partnership with the commercial real estate index provider Global Real Analytics (GRA) on 6 September 2006. They listed future and option contracts based on the S&P/GRA Commercial Real Estate Indices (CREX) on 29 October 2007.
The S&P/GRA CREX indices capture underlying real estate dynamics by tracking transaction-based price changes in diverse property sectors and geographic regions. GRA has a 20-year history of capturing data and sees the new indices as a natural extension, suited for the use of publicly traded futures contracts.
Ten quarterly cash-settled contracts are available: a national composite index, five regional indices (Desert Mountain West, Mid-Atlantic South, Northeast, Midwest and Pacific West) and four national property type indices (retail, office, apartment and warehouse properties).
CME expects the users of the new property contracts to be different from those trading in housing derivatives. If someone hedges against house-price declines in an area, he or she develops or buys a house there. The commercial contracts, on the other hand, are designed for larger investors who hold commercial properties in their portfolios, such as pension funds and REITs.
To hedge real estate or home price declines, individuals can purchase put options based on a particular index. If prices fall, investors will naturally see the value of their real estate holdings decline, but they offset the losses with gains in the put options. The CME hopes that there will be enough speculators in the market to take the other side of the transactions.
Market participants report loan enquiries
The first French property swap was traded by Merrill Lynch and AXA Real Estate Investment Managers in December 2006. The undisclosed notional amount was linked to the IPD Total Return French Offices Annual Index. By mid 2007, the French market has developed a permanent two-way pricing, i.e. bid and offer prices are constantly quoted. By the end of the fourth quarter of 2007, GB£ 787 million have been transacted in 63 trades. Most trades have been done on the office component of the French IPD index.
Moreover, market participants report enquiries on derivatives relating to the National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) residential house price index.
The first option on an IPD index outside the UK was traded in January 2007, referenced to the German IPD/DIX Index. Goldman Sachs acted as intermediary for this trade, which was one of the first property derivative transactions in Germany. Subsequently, BNP Paribas offered a capital protected note on a basket consisting of IPD UK All Properties, IPD France Offices and IPD Germany All Properties. IPD publishes official transaction data starting with the second quarter of 2007.
The market picked up quickly, with 44 trades on a total notional value of GB£ 283 million from the second to the fourth quarter of 2007. In May 2007, Deutsche Bank Research expects the German market to reach € 25 billion by 2010. HypoVereinsbank states that a volume of € 150 billion is possible in the long run for Germany and € 300 billion for the European Union.
The numbers represent about 1% of the respective physical property market.
