Minimization of potential debt problems
Key to the success of a property derivatives market is the existence of a transparent and reliable index that can be used as an underlying value. Creating such an index for properties is by no means an easy task. No two buildings are identical; i.e. properties are heterogeneous constituents of an index. Consequently, recording and averaging only prices or valuations lead to a poor-quality index. All characteristics of a property that determine its value also need to be considered, so that prices can be adjusted for heterogeneity and finally be aggregated. Most existing indices were initially constructed as descriptive measures, typically targeted as a benchmark instrument. Thus, it is not clear that these indices are suitable as underlying instruments for derivatives, i.e. as operative measures. To achieve a high accuracy and to earn wide trustworthiness, the following basic criteria should be fulfilled:
Representativeness. The index must truly reflect risk and performance of the respective real estate market and idiosyncratic risk should be reduced to an acceptable level by including a large enough number of objects. Just as for the stock market, where an index with a limited number of titles represents the overall market well, a large enough sample represents the property market as a whole.
Transparency. The calculation debt problems method of the index has to be publicly available.
Track record. A long track record helps people to understand the index and to judge its representativeness and behavior in past economic circumstances.
Objectivity and minimization of potential fraud. The input data must be free of subjective preferences and valuation practices. A large number of independent data providers further reduces the risk of manipulation, as the data of each provider gets a smaller weight in the overall index.
The impact of payday loans market
There is mixed evidence on the impact of a derivatives market on its underlying asset market. Some studies have found a reduction in volatility after the introduction of derivatives while others conclude that volatility was not affected or even increased.
The general reasoning for an increase in payday loans volatility states that derivatives attract speculators who may destabilize the base market and create bubbles, and that the closing out of hedging positions shortly before expiration creates additional price variation. On the other hand, a decrease of volatility could result as derivatives make a market more complete, reduce transaction costs and enhance information flows. Also, the transfer of speculative activity from the base market to the derivative market may dampen volatility.
Others suggests that derivatives improve the efficiency of incomplete markets by expanding the opportunity set faced by investors. This in turn should reduce the volatility of the underlying asset. Research show that option listings have beneficial effects and improve the market quality and liquidity of the underlying stocks. They analyzed the impact of derivatives on their underlying assets for 174 stocks that had an option listed on either the American Stock Exchange (Amex), the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), the Pacific Stock Exchange (PSE) or the Philadelphia Stock Exchange (PHLX) from 1983 to 1989. In particular, they observed a decrease in the bid-offer spreads and increases in quoted depth, trading volume, trading frequency and transaction size after the introduction of derivatives. In summary, the listing of options resulted in reduced transaction costs for the underlying stocks. Further, they found that information asymmetries decreased and pricing efficiency increased.
Derivatives to manage house credit and price risk
On the side of residential owner-occupied housing, Hinkelmann and Swidler (2006) are sceptic as to whether the market can take off. Mentally, homeowners tend to treat their home just as a consumption good rather than as an investment that involves price risk. Moreover, they would always be subject to a huge tracking error risk when hedging their homes with derivatives based on house price indices. This limits the effectiveness of hedging, and individuals may not use derivatives to manage house price risk. Ultimately, a lack of hedgers in the marketplace may lead to failure of residential housing derivatives such as the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) housing futures contracts. It remains to be seen whether the involved challenges and hurdles can be successfully addressed.
History shows that the buildup period of a new market is very fragile. Property derivatives were launched in the early 1990s and actually failed. The debut on the London Futures and Options Exchange (FOX) crashed in a combination of bad timing and scandal over false trades designed to create the impression of higher activity (see experience in property derivatives).
Today, liquidity in the property derivatives market has a good chance of being increased. In 1981, the first interest rate swap was done. Although people were sceptic at the time, it is now a trillion dollar market. The property market could experience a similar sort of growth in derivative instruments.
Median prices of home credits
The Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE)’s Future Exchange (CFE) offers futures contracts that track prices nationally and regionally (North-east, South, Midwest and West) and eventually in 10 metropolitan areas as well.
CFE contracts are linked to the median price of existing home sales as tracked by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Further, HedgeStreet allows anyone with a US$ 100 deposit and an internet connection to trade financial instruments called “housing price hedgelets” based on single-family house prices in six different cities (Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego and San Francisco). Just as the CFE contracts, the HedgeStreet hedgelets are based on indices of NAR. CBOE and HedgeStreet announced on 22 February 2006 that they collaborated on retail distribution of their contracts via joint marketing initiatives and that they would share certain technologies and hosting facilities to achieve cost and distribution synergies. The agreement also involved an equity investment by CBOE in HedgeStreet.
Moreover, the London-based International Real Estate Exchange (INREEX) intends to offer contracts tied to average home prices published by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), the agency that regulates the mortgage organizations Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The exchange’s trading technology allows investors to trade the national or a state index online.
The low trading volume in the contracts based on the S&P/Case–Shiller index caused Radar Logic, an analytic and data company providing a range of daily indices and analytic tools, to launch a further index family for residential property. The Residential Property Indices (RPX) represent the median transaction prices per square foot paid in one of 25 Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) on any given day. In addition, there is a national composite index, representing over US$ 10 trillion in residential properties. The RPX market targets investors that are exposed to mortgage credit or to the housing market cycles in general.
